The Attack on Jay Jones:

and the Most Important Attorney General Race in a Generation

It’s no secret that the Winsome Earle-Sears’ gubernatorial campaign is off to a shaky start. Abigail Spanberger has a large financial advantage, one that became even more pronounced in the last fundraising cycle. Earle-Sears has yet to define the race with the sharpness that has been the hallmark of winning GOP contests. She has no apparent strategy to deal with Donald Trump’s upside down approval rating in Virginia. And Chris LaCivita, the RVA-based architect of Donald Trump’s winning 2024 strategy, has already labeled the Earle-Sears’ staff “amateur hour.”

Today’s poll from VCU that has Spanberger up by double digits will only make it more difficult for Republican donors to open their wallets.

In recent weeks, however, we have begun to see the emergence of the GOP’s campaign strategy. It’s an all-out assault on Jay Jones, the Democratic candidate for Attorney General (AG).

A Texas-based PAC is already running radio ads noting that “Jay Jones stands with criminals not victims.” The Richmond Times-Dispatch (RTD) reports that the Republican Party of Virginia has launched a “Soft Jay Jones” campaign for his votes as a Delegate against “mandatory minimum jail sentences for repeat domestic abusers” and elevated penalties for sexual assault by massage therapists. The RTD also noted a statement by Governor Youngkin that “Jones is so far left that he needs a boat ride to get to California.”

Essentially, the GOP is working to depict Jones as Virginia’s version of Zohran Mamdani or, as GOP Republican AG Jason Miyares calls him, the “most left-wing candidate in Virginia ever. “

Why so much early attention on a down ballot race?

The answer is simple. Many Republicans have come to the conclusion that keeping Miyares as AG may be the GOP’s best hope for limiting the Democrats’ power if the conventional wisdom about a likely Spanberger victory holds in November. And if the strategy of attacking Jones becomes an effective carom shot that puts Spanberger and Democratic House of Delegates candidates on the defensive, well, that’ll just be an added benefit.

Virginia has not voted a split ticket since 2005 and the VCU poll has Jones up 9. But Republicans believe that Miyares has a genuine chance to buck the trend. Unlike Spanberger and Hashmi who have massively outraised their opponents, Jones begins at a distinct financial disadvantage. At the moment, Miyares has $6.9 million cash on hand to Jones’ $1.2 million (yes, that’s correct!) Miyares also has the advantages of incumbency and he is adept in appealing to the perception that the AG is the top cop.

I’m not certain that Democrats have fully recognized that this may be the most important Attorney General race in a generation. Unlike the federal government where the Department of Justice is an Executive branch agency, the Virginia AG is elected independently and possesses inherent powers. The AG has an important role in areas as diverse as energy policy, consumer protection, higher education, and law enforcement. Perhaps most importantly in 2025, the AG also decides the legal position of the Commonwealth in controversies with the Trump administration.

For instance, the university counsels at Virginia higher ed institutions are appointed by and can be removed by the AG. If there was a Democratic AG sitting in office today, the Commonwealth would have taken a very different stance toward the Trump administration’s efforts to investigate the University of Virginia and George Mason University for alleged civil rights violations. Jim Ryan would still be the president of UVA and Gregory Washington would not be fighting to keep his job at GMU.

If Jay Jones wins, the Democrats are likely to have a superfecta- control of the three statewide offices plus both houses of the General Assembly. Jones is likely to join with other Democratic AG’s across the nation in lawsuits challenging Trump administration policies. If Jason Miyares wins, the GOP will retain at least one independent power base, one that is likely to take a very different stance on matters such as DEI in higher ed, energy policy, and Virginia’s participation in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative. It will be up to Miyares to articulate the Commonwealth’s legal opinion on Trump administration initiatives that impact Virginia.

If there has been a more important Attorney General election since Massive Resistance, you’ll have to convince me.