THE DEPORTATION ISSUE IN 2025
Youngkin Lays the GOP Groundwork for November
The General Assembly this session rejected Governor Youngkin’s proposed budget amendment that would have denied localities approximately $700 million in federal and state funds if they do not cooperate with Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s efforts when it seeks to deport criminals who are in Virginia without legal documentation.
Last week, Governor Youngkin issued an Executive Order calling on the state police and the Virginia Department of Corrections to collaborate with federal officials in identifying and arresting illegal immigrants (David Ress story in the RTD). The Order also requires the Secretary of Public Safety and Homeland Security to contact every Sheriff or Director of a Regional Jail to obtain a certification of their intent to fully cooperate with ICE.
Echoing President Trump, the Governor’s rationale focused on criminal actions that have been committed by individuals and gang members in the country illegally. He cited several incidents in Virginia and other heinous crimes in Georgia, Maryland and Texas, including the murder of Laken Riley. The Governor noted that the Executive Order “will bridge the gap between state and local policing and federal immigration policies- a role that has become even more critical given rising concerns over criminal activity linked to transnational criminal organizations and gangs.”
Lieutenant Governor Earle-Sears and Attorney General Miyares immediately endorsed the Executive Order with the RTD reporting that the LG applauded the Governor for addressing the “scourge of dangerous and violent illegal immigrants.”
Youngkin’s Executive Order is more than an indication that his administration will be supporting The Trump administration’s mass deportation initiatives. Democrats should see it as an announcement that the Virginia GOP intends to make deportation a central issue in the upcoming campaigns, both statewide and in several battleground races for the House of Delegates.
Here’s why:
Support for deporting individuals who are in the country without legal documentation was central to Trump’s success in 2024 and limiting immigration at the southern border is probably the single most popular Trump policy.
Support for deportation is especially strong when the focus is on individuals who have committed criminal acts since they have arrived in the country.
Republicans believe that the issue is a twofer- it mobilizes the Republican base and it may enable the GOP to increase its vote share in the Latino and African-American communities.
It is not clear that Democrats will have a unified response to the Republican emphasis on deportation.
Democrats in the General Assembly quashed the Governor’s demand that local law enforcement collaborate with ICE in enforcing federal policies.
But will this be the case across the board?
What position will Abigail Spanberger take on whether local sheriffs will collaborate with ICE? Will Democratic candidates in the House of Delegates battleground districts defend the party’s opposition in the General Assembly to Youngkin’s demand for local collaboration with ICE?
The Republican strategy to make deportation a central issue is not risk-free, especially because the President cannot reach his goals by focusing exclusively on criminals. It’s one thing to support deporting individuals with violent criminal records. It’s another to endorse separating families, decimating the construction, hospitality and agricultural workforces, and fueling even higher inflation.
But given how much Musk’s chainsaw-like DOGE efforts are putting the Virginia GOP on the defensive as the Commonwealth is Ground Zero for federal cutbacks, it is a risk that the Republican statewide candidates will willingly take.
In the 2024 presidential campaign, we saw how successful Trump was in putting the Democrats on the defensive and making them uncomfortable with cultural issues such as deportation and transgender rights. Virginia Democrats running statewide and in competitive House of Delegates races ought not to be surprised with what’s coming in this year’s campaigns.